{"id":22015,"date":"2022-11-03T07:51:56","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T08:51:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peymantaeidi.net\/stem-cell\/?p=22015"},"modified":"2022-11-03T09:36:03","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T09:36:03","slug":"eight-reasons-why-general-naravane-is-wrong-about-the-future-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peymantaeidi.net\/stem-cell\/2022\/11\/03\/eight-reasons-why-general-naravane-is-wrong-about-the-future-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Eight Reasons Why General Naravane is Wrong About the Future of War"},"content":{"rendered":"

In his first article since retirement<\/a>, General M.M. Naravane has exposed Indian army\u2019s lack of understanding of present and future wars. This is worrying, especially when the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) is at the forefront of the new war, both in terms of its science (technologies) and art (war concepts). <\/span><\/p>\n

The PLA is not only India\u2019s main military challenge and has occupied fresh territory since April 2020, it also openly threatens \u201creunification\u201d of Arunachal Pradesh with Tibet. The United States, in its 2022 National Defence Strategy<\/a>, has called the PLA the \u2018pacing challenge\u2019 capable of matching its military\u2019s emerging technologies, war concepts, and defence ecosystem. And yet, the Indian Army remains oblivious to the PLA threat.<\/p>\n

This is evident from General Naravane\u2019s article in which he uses generalities to touch upon disparate weapons platforms (which are inconsequential) \u2013 not present and future technologies \u2013 and draws lessons for the Indian army from the Ukraine war. The fact is that the war that India faces from China will be unprecedented. I will explain in eight points that General Naravane needs more clarity on technologies which will shape the present and future wars.<\/p>\n

1. Character of war<\/b><\/p>\n

First, he writes, \u2018It is near impossible to predict the character of future wars.\u2019<\/p>\n

This is not correct. Since 2010, the US military knew that the character of war (how war would be fought) was changing rapidly. Its second offset strategy capabilities had been matched by the PLA. These included superior intelligence collection platforms; battle networks which connect sensors, command post for decision-making and shooters (which the PLA calls operational systems); and precision, guided and stand-off munitions. The PLA could close the kill chain or the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) as quickly as the US military. The PLA could do stand-off precision attacks at long ranges as good as the US military with its indigenous mortars, rockets, missiles, and artillery projectiles most of which were guided. Coupled with increasing miniaturisation, guided weapons brought unprecedented lethality at long ranges. Moreover, the PLA had developed an industrial base and ecosystem for largest inventory of land-based missiles in the world.<\/p>\n

Thus, by 2010, the PLA had made the US military\u2019s Network Centric Operations (which were first showcased by it in the 1991 Operation Desert Storm against Iraq) redundant since it could do \u2018systems destruction warfare\u2019 to destroy US battle networks by kinetic (land-based missiles) and non-kinetic (cyber and electronic warfare) means. This would disrupt, destroy, or incapacitate US\u2019 military communications at all levels.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Rocket Force under the Eastern Theatre Command of China\u2019s People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) conducts conventional missile tests into the waters off the eastern coast of Taiwan, from an undisclosed location in this handout released on August 4, 2022. Photo: Eastern Theatre Command\/Handout via Reuters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

To meet the PLA\u2019s grown challenge, the Pentagon announced the third offset strategy (to offset PLA\u2019s capabilities) in 2014. This involved the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in all aspects of warfare. Today, the US military and the PLA are competing in autonomous robotic war, called integrated deterrence and intelligentised war respectively. This has changed the character of war once more.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, once the PLA developed capabilities to contest, compete, and combat with the US military in the space, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) battle spaces, it declared them new war domains in its 2014 military strategy. Next, China did structural reforms in 2015 and created two formidable organisations: PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) comprising cyber, EMS, Space, and \u2018three warfare\u2019: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare (colloquially called wolf diplomacy), and legal warfare. The other organisation was PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) comprising nuclear and conventional land-based missiles.<\/p>\n

The 2015 reforms were to be accomplished in five years. At present, the PLA has capabilities to destroy the Indian military\u2019s communications at all levels of war and render various headquarters and formations incapacitated, leading to chaos in the chain of command. The Indian military has insignificant capabilities in cyber, EMS and space divisions. The reality is that without competitive capabilities in these domains, the war will be lost quickly.<\/p>\n

The PLA calls this informatised warfare, and this is the present. When the US and western militaries were aware of how the character of war had changed not once but twice in the last 12 years, why was the Indian army unaware of it?<\/p>\n

2. Drones and the five domains of war<\/b><\/p>\n

Two, skipping military strides made since 2010, General Naravane is fixated on the era of \u2018drones or quadcopters\u2019 (weapons platforms) which have \u2018military applications and [are] used for everything from surveillance to kamikaze attacks.\u2019<\/p>\n

To put things into perspective, all quadcopters (helicopter with four rotors) or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are drones, but all drones are not UAVs since they include unmanned systems in air, ground, sea, and undersea which are piloted remotely or autonomously.<\/p>\n

All drones use technologies in five domains of war. Drones cannot operate in an environment without good control over EMS and cyber. Drones cover the domains of space (for GPS communication), land, and air. Thus, drones would have an operational role between peer competitors like India and Pakistan, or the PLA and the US military. Not between the PLA and the Indian military, since it would be impossible for Indian drones to breach the PLA\u2019s Anti Access Area Denial (A2AD) firewall on the LAC which includes cyber, EMS, counter-space, laser, and microwave weapons capabilities. Laser power weapons, which are scalable, can take out UAVs; and microwave weapons can burn and destroy electronics.<\/p>\n

There is no mention of cyber, EMS and space in General Naravane\u2019s article.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Representative image of a drone. Photo: Reuters\/Jason Lee<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Moreover, drone swarms are still at a formative stage. The 75 drones swarm demonstrated by the Indian army on January 15, 2021 when General Naravane was the army chief was a stage-managed exercise. The then army commander, Lt Gen. Raj Shukla in on record saying that a retired air force officer, Sameer Joshi who claimed to swarm drones did 15 rehearsals before the actual demonstration. \u2018The biggest concern was that no drone should fall on the audience\u2026,\u2019 Shukla said during a talk at United Services Institution<\/a> (at 1hr19m19s) As far as the payment was concerned, according to Shukla, the \u2018Army Design Bureau paid Joshi 200 crore\u2019 for the demonstrations and future orders even as the technology was not matured.<\/p>\n

3. AI in war<\/b><\/p>\n

Three, Navavane says \u2018new technologies are heralding the end of the 20th century battlefield \u2013 main battle tanks, manned aircraft, and large surface ships. The vulnerabilities of all three have been amply exposed and unmanned alternatives are already under testing.\u2019<\/p>\n

His proposition is not correct since he does seem to understand Artificial Intelligence (AI) in war. AI is about simulating human intelligence into all aspects of war.<\/p>\n

AI comprises of six stacks:<\/p>\n